Counter-intuitive – that is a word that I remember one of my friends liked saying especially in regards to our Christian faith. The example that I remember he used was the dual nature of Jesus: He is fully Man but at the same time fully God. It is something that, seemingly, does not compute, but it makes a huge difference in our faith – definitely more than an iota. Perhaps I will post something more about this some another day as the history of the church fathers formulating this doctrine is quite interesting, at least to me. However, for today, I would like to apply the word, counter-intuitive, in a more mundane setting: The country of USA.
Most everywhere you go these days, you can see all sorts of reports on how the US’s best days are behind. Heck at some places, they make it like as if the US is on a verge of some great depression. This really came to me when I read an AP report today about how in the previous quarter, the US economy grew at 3.3% clip – beating expert expectations. However, the story, instead of being a positive piece was actually quite negative, saying how it was just a blip and that we should expect much worse in the coming months. It seems that every piece of economic good news has that twist. Anyway, I’ve been hearing recession, recession, recession since about 2005 and so color me skeptical about that. Also election season is on us and so we have these politicians going on and on about how things are so bad, but if we elect them, they will fix everything and all will be better (which happens to be a pet peeve of mine – I wish I could hear politicians say that if they get elected, they will just get themselves and government out of our way). Not too long ago, Newsweek I think, had a cover story on how America’s best days are behind it by Fareed Zakaria.
Which got me thinking, are things really that bad? My conclusion: No. Economically, the US gdp grew from about 10 trillion in 2000 to over 14 trillion in 2007. To put this in perspective, in those 7 years, we add the entire gdp of China and that is with the tech bubble burst, 9/11 and two wars in Iraq and Afganhistan. Suicide rates are lower in the US than in much of Europe, Russia and the Asian powers of China, Japan and Korea. Abortion rates have been falling in the US as have the divorce rates. Plus with the birth rate and net immigration and acculturation, I think the US faces a better demographic future than other developed countries. Even in war, the US armed forces lost less men this past year than during peacetime in the carter administration. Even in alliances and relationships with other countries, with the new administrations in Canda, Germany, France and Korea, we are a world of difference now from the reflexively anti-Americanism that dominated the government of those countries in the early 2000s. I mean, I know each of these points have certain twists to it, that there are challenges and things can always go wrong – I am not trying to be some Dr. Pangloss. All I am saying is that things are not as terrible as it seems especially in the context of the world and history. You should also not feel sorry for yourselves (which is my greatest fear for the US – that its citizens start feeling sorry for themselves).
You know, I would say that the negativism itself is a testament that things are not as bad as it seems. I would say that it really is a reaction to how good we really have it. I mean, if it was bad and has been bad for a while and will be even worse, then what’s the point of reporting it? For example, the trains running on time are not reported as news to us. (I hope I am getting my feelings across on this). Heck, if you really want to see some good-time news type of reporting, you should check out Rodong Shimun – the North Korean newspaper. They treat NK as some paradise. I am sure that style of reporting is also played out in Cuba, Zimbabwe, China, Russia and other totalitarian type of places where you never want to be. Counter-intuitively, it is when the media treats a country’s leaders or would be leaders as some savior or messiah and think that everything is going reall really well is when one should be worried. It seems to me that it is pretty much in those countries where there is prosperity and wealth that negative reporting about itself seems to be prevalent and conversely it is in those totalitarian countries where there are some truly fundamental and terrible issues that the reporting is positive – sometime exuberantly so.
Overall, I think the US has a bright future. Especially more so if the government does not get in the way.
Daniel 